It's just a week before Apple will "rock and roll" us with the latest update to its iPod line. However, a sudden shortage of 40GB Apple TVs—Apple is quoting a 1-2 week wait for a new one—has Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster thinking an Apple TV update could make an appearance at Apple's special event.
The Apple TV, which never officially made it out of the "hobby" stage, got its last serious update almost two years ago at Macworld Expo 2008. It certainly seems plausible that an update might be in the wings. For instance, Munster made a series of Apple prognostications recently that included a revamping of iTunes Store video content, with Apple expanding its library and possibly adding some kind of monthly subscription model. Apple may also be looking to showcase its HTTP Live Streaming technology, which would be a great fit for iTunes video content. Folks would also love to be able to stream online content, such as Netflix and Hulu, directly to the device. However, such features could be easily implemented in software.
Other changes, though, would require new or revamped hardware. If Apple were to leverage HTTP Live Streaming, it would effectively eliminate the need for a large hard drive inside the device, relying instead on a smaller amount of buffer memory. Or perhaps Apple plans to move to solid state storage, eliminating the noise and heat from a mechanical drive. And, despite all objections to Blu-ray's "bag of hurt" licensing, I know there are Apple TV users wishing for an optical drive, which would eliminate the need for yet another device in the A/V stand.
While Apple has been more or less content to let the Apple TV merely function as a TV-connected gateway for iTunes content, Apple always made more money selling iPods than iTunes tracks. If the Apple TV were to transition to a more versatile media playback device with the iTunes Store serving as one potential source for content (as it does with iPods, since music can also be obtained from eMusic, Amazon MP3 Store, CDs, etc), it seems likely Apple would be able to move it beyond the "hobby" stage.
Of course, the invitation to Apple's event was headlined, "It's only rock and roll, but we like it." That doesn't really suggest anything remotely Apple TV-related to us. We also note that there is no similar shortage for the 160GB Apple TV model as there is for the 40GB one. If the whole event is just iPods and music—no Apple TV, no iTablet—don't be the least bit surprised. (Update: The Loop has sources that appear to agree with us.)
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